EUROVISION 2022 – The “old system” was the system in place before 2016, when each nation only provided the rest of Europe one set of 1-to-8-10-12 points. The jury and televoting results were combined into a single common rating for each country.

The approach utilised for these alternate findings is the one used between 2013 and 2015, with the 2014 public rulebook serving as the official source. Essentially, the whole ranks of a country’s jury and televote were combined, and any tie between songs was broken by awarding the song with the most televotes the best place.

This year, we recalculated the results of each semi-final and final, without forgetting to recalculate the jury ranks. Indeed, in 2018, the method by which individual jury ranks are converted into a single rating changed. However, there was one problem, or possibly six. According to our study, aggregated findings were unheard of under the prior system. When a country had a “jury failure” or other irregularity, just its televote was utilised to determine points. This is what occurred between Montenegro and North Macedonia in 2015. As a result, we decided to utilise just the televote of five of the six countries: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Montenegro, Romania, and Poland.

FIRST SEMIFINAL

197 – UKRAINE
124 – NETHERLANDS
115 – PORTUGAL
113 – ARMENIA
107 – GREECE
077 – LITUANIA
068 – MOLDOVA
046 – ICELAND
040 – CROATIA
035 – SWITZERLAND
019 – ALBANIA
018 – DENMARK
014 – BULGARIA
013 – LATVIA
008 – SLOVENIA
007 – AUSTRIA

Because San Marino does not have a nationwide telephone network, its televote is already an aggregate of other televoters. As a consequence, prior to 2016, just its jury was employed, and in prior years we elected to solely use the San Marinese panel to award points in alternative outcomes. This year, with the jury cancelled and no public rule contemplating the possibility, we have decided to disregard the San Marino votes entirely. This would not affect the qualifiers in the second semi-final. We hastily projected scores from potential aggregations around San Marino (aggregating just juries or the entire ranks of the other nations in the pot), and North Macedonia would never be able to overtake Cyprus.

There is minimal movement in the first semi-final, but there is a significant shift in qualifiers. Croatia would have qualified under the previous rules, replacing Switzerland. This is mostly due to the fact that “Boys Do Cry” advanced to the final primarily due to strong jury support, and finished second to last in the televote. It’s hardly unexpected that the song fell out of several national televote top tens after the rankings were consolidated. Croatia, on the other hand, came in 12th place on the televote and 10th place in the jury vote. Mia had this chance to squeeze in with more continuous and balanced assistance, which the new system “blocked.” The similar discrepancy in the jury and televote support explains Greece’s drop from second to fifth place, with poorer televote support.

SECOND SEMIFINAL

204 – SWEDEN
124 – CZECH REPUBLIC
119 – SERBIA
117 – ESTONIA
103 – AUSTRALIA
102 – POLAND
080 – FINLAND
068 – BELGIUM
060 – ROMANIA
040 – CYPRUS
031 – NORTH MACEDONIA
029 – ISRAEL
020 – MALTA
020 – MONTENEGRO
017 – SAN MARINO
015 – IRELAND
007 – AZERBAIJAN
004 – GEORGIA

While just one qualifier changes in the second semi-final, with Cyprus replacing Azerbaijan, the previous system would have been much more punitive than the current one. Azerbaijan would drop from 10th to 17th place. That is a drop from a place in the previous qualifier with a substantial advantage (20 points ahead of North Macedonia) to second-to-last. This is due to how the previous method would have handled the cancellation of six jurors during the event. In compliance with the regulations in effect prior to 2016, we only utilised the televote to award points to five of these six jurors. San Marino, the sixth nation, was completely dismissed and received no points in our findings. This is due to the fact that there is no genuine televote and no valid jury results. Azerbaijan, like Switzerland, qualified alone due to strong jury support. That juror support was reflected in the aggregated findings used to replace the cancelled juries. Azerbaijan was going to lose badly with one nation gone and five replaced by their televote, and it did. For further information, see the article’s methods section.

The remainder of the results show little change, with Australia’s dip explained in part by disproportionate jury support (2nd in the jury, 8th in the televote), as Greece did in Semi 1. Finally, even with the previous results, Sweden scored more points in their semi-final than Ukraine. This is mostly due to the increased number of voting nations in semi-final 2: 21 as opposed to 19.

GRAND FINAL

377 – UKRAINE
267 – UNITED KINGDOM
265 – SPAIN
240 – SWEDEN
167 – SERBIA
144 – MOLDOVA
131 – ITALY
101 – GREECE
090 – PORTUGAL
064 – ESTONIA
069 – NORWAY
069 – HE NETHERLANDS
067 – POLAND
060 – LITHUANIA
039 – AZERBAIJAN
037 – AUSTRALIA
028 – ROMANIA
026 – ARMENIA
024 – BELGIUM
019 – SWITZERLAND
014 – FINLAND
007 – CZECH REPUBLIC
007 – ICELAND
004 – FRANCE
000 – GERMANY

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